For the last four years, Russia has been engaged in conflict with Ukraine and has faced international sanctions; however, its agricultural sector has seen rapid growth. Russia’s agricultural sector has become a major source of revenue as traditional oil revenues have fallen. The output of Russia’s agricultural sector has set new export records and has transitioned into a key leader and driver of Russia’s national economy. This has taken place as oil revenues have fallen from below 50 percent to an estimated 25–30 percent.
When looking at the composition of products in Russia’s agricultural sector, grain is the foundation of Russia’s agricultural export dominance. This has traditionally been the case; however, with innovation and investment in new technologies, extreme weather conditions in some regions of the country pose less risk than before. This has resulted in the country achieving new records in the industry.
An important feature of Russia’s current harvest is that most productive regions are entering a transition. Due to external factors such as climate change and investments in innovation finally paying off, Central Russia and Siberia have exceeded targets, which has covered shortfalls in the south. This is notable, especially because the southern black earth regions have typically been the primary driving force behind Russia’s agricultural production.
As a result of these high yields, Russia is expected to export 53–55 million tons of grain in the 2025/26 agricultural year, including 43 million tons of wheat. Russia has maintained its leading position as the world’s top wheat exporter, a position it assumed in 2016 when it overtook the United States.
Russia has also been increasing sunflower and vegetable oil production and exports. It has secured alternative new buyers, including India, which is a long-standing trading partner. Rising global prices for products such as vegetable oil have driven this trend within Russia. Land allocation has also increasingly favoured oilseed cultivation due to these conditions, allowing for greater focus and the development of a larger production base.
It is estimated that Russia’s total agricultural exports are expected to reach $40 billion within the year, which would make agriculture the second-largest source of revenue for Russia after oil, which stands at an estimated $350 billion.
BakuTiflis 